Drawing on transaction experience across Europe, the CIS, Asia and Africa, this article examines the most material political risks affecting project finance today and assesses how mitigation strategies have evolved in response.
Project finance has always involved the allocation and management of complex risks across financing construction, legal, operational and political domains. Among these, political risk has become a central constraint on bankability, particularly for large infrastructure, energy and natural resources projects operating across borders.
This shift reflects a broader change in behaviour of states. Governments are more interventionist in sectors viewed as strategic, fiscal pressures are increasing and geopolitical fragmentation has reduced tolerance for long-term private contractual arrangements that limit public policy flexibility. As a result, political risk can no longer be treated as a residual issue addressed through standard documentation; it has become a core structuring consideration for lenders and sponsors. From a lender perspective, this shift has tangible consequences. Political risk is no longer assessed late in the diligence process or treated as residual documentation issue; it increasingly dictates whether a transaction proceeds at all.
Increasingly, these risks are shaped not only by host-state behaviour but by wider geopolitical dynamics, including sanctions regimes, strategic competition over natural resources, and intervention by third states pursuing national or regional interests. As a result, projects may be exposed to political risk even where domestic institutions appear stable and contractual frameworks are robust. This shift marks a move from traditional country risk analysis towards a broader assessment of geopolitical risk, which can evolve rapidly and is often beyond the control of project counterparties.
EU and UK securitisation rules require the originator, sponsor or original lender of a securitisation to retain on an ongoing basis a material net economic interest in the securitisation of not less than 5%, "measured at origination". This rule is a fundamental principle of the EU and UK risk detention rules, designed to ensure the retainer has "skin in the game" from the start and throughout the life of securitisation.
The meaning of “measured at origination” has given rise to a number of issues, primarily concerning measurement methodologies, ongoing compliance, and a lack of clarity in relation to certain structures. Regulatory guidance and market practice have provided various clarifications and technical standards, but a number of issues and ambiguities remain, and the EU and UK rules diverge in certain respects.